No Magic Formula: NCAA Picks and Predictions

There isn't a magic formula to selecting teams to make it to the Final Four. But there are ways in which you can make it easier on yourself to come to a feasible conclusion. For me it all comes down to the five things I mentioned in how to pick your tournament bracket: proximity, players, coaching, matchups and most importantly, your gut instinct. Sometimes luck gets the job done. For example, if you said two years ago that you picked George Mason to make it to the Final Four, you're a liar. But if you chose Florida to return to the Final Four last year that would have been a safe choice.

This year is all about a few spoilers who could make this pot of stew somewhat interesting. The region that could see the most shockers is the West, where No. 10 seed Arizona could cause all kinds of havoc for anybody. No. 3 seed Xavier also has the potential, a word you'll hear often during the tournament, to raise issues for other teams.

The sure bets seem to be non-existent, with the closest safe choice being UCLA out West. But even they are susceptible. Here are my Final Four picks with the reasoning behind them.

EAST REGION

Tennessee.

Why not North Carolina? Because they almost lost to Virginia Tech, a 19-13 team that is not particularly athletic but well-coached. There are tons of good coaches in this tournament, else they wouldn't be here. The Tarheels rebounded in the ACC tournament final but they didn't do enough to convince me of a collapse in the Big Dance. In fact, I think the Tarheels could be in for it by the second round, with Indiana or Arkansas being the Tarheels' opponent. If it's the Hoosiers the Heels match up better with Indiana. However, the Hoosiers have something to play for, having lost their head coach and so they'll be on a mission. The Razorbacks have more big men but I think UNC will probably squeak past either of these teams based on their guard play. After that Tony Bennett's Washington State will be lurking. It may be a down year for the Big Ten and a big year for the Pac-10 but that means little once the ball is tipped at the Big Dance.