Playing the Mega Millions Lottery Part 1: Avoid the Traps and Scams

You're about to buy a Mega Millions lottery ticket. Somebody will win the jackpot, you think, so why not you? You look for an edge, a strategy for picking those winning Mega Millions numbers. Mega Millions related websites are ready to sell you numbers likely to win, or at least a way to
 pick winning numbers. You can already see yourself a brand new Mega Millions millionaire. But before you buy that Mega Millions lottery ticket, you should know some things.

The Mega Millions lottery and so-called services around it can scam you out of your money. You can easily avoid Mega Millions lottery traps once you know how. For the best free Mega Millions lottery tips and strategies see Part 2 of this series. But first, what are the Mega Millions traps?

Rules of the Mega Millions lottery

The Mega Millions lottery rules are simple. Pay $1.00, pick five different numbers from 1 to 56, and one more number, the Mega Ball, from 1 to 46. Match the six winning numbers and win the Mega Millions jackpot.

Match five numbers but not the Mega Ball and you win the second prize, $250,000. Match four of the five numbers plus the Mega Ball to win $10,000. All other prizes are $150 or less. Outside California the size of all Mega Millions lottery prizes except the jackpot are predetermined.

Mega Millions lottery trap #1: The odds are stacked against you, more than you imagine

Mega Millions, like every other lottery, is designed to make money for whoever is running it. Over the long term only the operator is guaranteed to make money. The average payout of a drawing the week after someone won the jackpot can be as little as $0.25 per Mega Millions ticket, though the Mega Millions lottery official website claims $0.50 of every dollar wagered is paid out in prizes.

Mega Millions says your odds of winning are 1 in 40. However, on average, for each 40 tickets ($40) your winnings will be $10 or less 99.986% of the time. Your odds of winning $150 are less than 1 in 7250. You have less than 1 chance in 580,000 of winning one of the top 3 prizes. The odds against your winning the Mega Millions jackpot are more than 175 million to 1.

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Well said, Opher.

Posted on 04/26/2009 at 8:04:09 PM

web addy to part 2 for the curious...have a nice day http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/709661/mega_millions_lottery_the_best_way.html?cat=61

Posted on 01/23/2009 at 12:01:53 PM

You're right. On average each number "should" be chosen the same number of times, but the actual distribution has a spread. Thus, if on average each number should have been chosen 103 times, the distribution would have a width of +/-10. This means 68% of numbers (i.e. 38 numbers) should be selected between 93 and 113 times. The top 5 numbers should have frequencies above 116. The top one number should have a frequency above 124. If you limit yourself to say 12 drawings, each number should be drawn about once, but the width is +/-1. Thus I'd expect one or two numbers (1.7 is the numerical value, but I have never seen 0.7 numbers) to be drawn 3 times or more. Since each drawing is an independent event from the previous ones, there should be no correlation between the winning numbers in the next drawing and the distribution of winning numbers in past drawings. As humans we tend to look for patterns, and we often find them even where they aren't :).

Posted on 06/18/2008 at 4:06:51 PM

To check, just go to http://www.megamillions.com/winningpicks/past_years.asp?drawyear=1996, which shows the first year and dates the lottery was drawn. Also, after studying the lottery numbers closely for several years now, it's obvious that, whether through chaos theory or other means, numbers tend to be favored during each "round" (a "round being the draws between jackpot wins). Right now, the clear favorite number is 32, which has been picked 3 times within the last 6 rounds. During the last round, 31 was chosen 5 times... but has yet to be chosen once this time. This has been consistent since I began my study. Historically, the top five favored numbers are 5, 32, 42, 46 and 22, all of which have been chosen far above average (based on the presumption that, after 1,155 drawings, each number should have been drawn an average of 103 times (1155x5/56). This is nothing special: anyone could figure this out.

Posted on 06/11/2008 at 7:06:59 AM

Just a slight correction in your "Did you know?" area. The Mega Millions did not start in May, 2002 (though some states may have joined then) but on September 6, 1996.

Posted on 06/11/2008 at 7:06:09 AM

Excellent breakdown. Thanks for the info.

Posted on 06/06/2008 at 9:06:06 PM

ahh leave it Uncle Sam. He wins no matter what!

Posted on 04/13/2008 at 5:04:48 PM

Interesting take!

Posted on 04/13/2008 at 12:04:30 PM

Great job - I remember when my son was about 7 and he saw a big winner on TV he says, "well why not buy enough tickets to make sure you win?" I told him that would be way too many tickets and the next day he comes back with the exact number LOL Oh course he added "we would need to find some others to go in with us" ROFL

Posted on 04/11/2008 at 8:04:39 PM

Good job! A lot of people know these numbers and still play anyway. I guess that's why gambling is also called a tax on the stupid.

Posted on 04/11/2008 at 3:04:54 PM

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