NCAA Tournament Championship Game: Kansas Vs. Memphis -- a Prediction

It's been a long road of wins for the two teams meeting at the Alamodome Monday, April 7, for the NCAA Tournament Championship Game. The Memphis Tigers come into the game with an NCAA record 38 wins and an offense that has defeated its last three opponents by 15 points or more. The Kansas Jayhawks (36-3) barely bypassed little Davidson on their way to the Final Four, but held off a strong North Carolina comeback in the semifinal to win by 18 points.

Two strong offenses; two strong defenses. Don't look for a blowout by either team -- unless it is in the final two minutes.

The key to this game will be on the inside, forcing the opposing offense to find outside shots. The team that controls the access to the basket will win. Here is why:

Memphis' "dribble-drive motion" offense relies on charging the middle and either finding the easy shot or, when the opponent's defense collapses on the ball carrier, passing the ball to an open man for a perimeter shot. Kansas' offense works toward the inside as well but in an opposite fashion, feeding the ball from the outside to the big guys inside for easy lay-ups and short jumpers.

Given these styles of offense, the defenses must block out and disallow access to the paint to throw them out of sync. Kansas used both a man-to-man defense and a collapsing center defense to keep North Carolina out of the lane in their semifinal, building up a huge lead in the first half and at the end of the game when North Carolina, who was forced to shoot outside, grew cold. The Tigers forced UCLA to the outside as well, keeping their center, Kevin Love, away from the basket. Memphis' forward Joey Dorsey controlled the offensive boards, pulling down 15 rebounds as Memphis refused UCLA follow-up shots.