Pennsylvania Poll Data Analysis

Pennsylvania has been the home of the Democratic party for weeks now, as Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama try desperately to get an edge in tomorrow's Pennsylvani primary. The weeks leading up to the Pennsylvania primary vote have been filled with preachers, bitterness, universally panned debate moderating, sniper fire stories, and a little talk about race. But as Pennsylvania primary voters finally get ready to vote, one thing hasn't changed. As of this point, Clinton still looks poised to take the Pennsylvania primary- the only change is by how much.

Obama himself downplayed expectations today by saying he would likely lose the Pennsylvania primary. But if he loses by less than 10 points, or even less than 5 points, Clinton's options for winning the Democratic nomination become smaller. Clinton needed a decisive, double digits win to cut into Obama's delegate lead, but if she only gets a small win, Obama's lead will remain stable. So the main question may be if Clinton will win by double digits, or if Obama can make it a close race- or even threaten for a win.

Several polls so far come up with conflicting data. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey has Clinton up by 5%, 49-44 with 7% undecided. Rasmussen Markets give Clinton an 87.2% chance to win in Pennsylvania. According to this poll, Clinton maintains a majority among white voters and white women, while Obama has the majority of black voters. Liberal voters favor Obama, while moderates or conservatives give the edge to Clinton.

The Southern Political Report conduced a poll that gives Clinton a 10 points lead, 49-39%. However, that leaves 12% of Pennsylvania primary voters undecided. If that many Pennsylvania residents are indeed undecided, it could give Obama a chance to cut into Clinton's lead at the last moment, or give Clinton the blowout win she desperately needs.