West Virginia Primary Polls: Pointing Toward an Obama-Clinton Ticket?

West Virginia is a solid Democratic voting state. It's state officials and state representatives are primarily Democrats. But it voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Why? Coal. Coal is the lifeblood of the economy of West Virginia and, where coal goes, West Virginia goes. The Bush camp promised to help the failing coal industry in 2000 and even though the United Mine Workers of America endorsed Al Gore for president, the state went to Bush. Analysts are still arguing over the possible reasons why West Virginia stayed in the Bush corner in 2004. But both victories boil down to god, gays, and guns. West Virginia is socially conservative, religious, and 70% of the households own a gun.

With the current state of affairs in the Democratic Party, Republicans are hoping to be able to do it one more time. And if Senator Barack Obama receives the Democratic Party nomination for president, Democrats are afraid that they just might. Selling Obama will be difficult. He is liberal, pro-abortion, and pro civil union.

The reason for the worry this time around is exacerbated by the large point differential in poll numbers between the two Democratic contenders. Two American Research Group polls, one at the beginning of April and the other last week, has Senator Hillary Clinton increasing an original 15-point lead (37% - 22%) to a shocking 43 points (66% - 23%). These two polls suggest that most of the undecided voters have decided to vote for Senator Clinton.

Numbers like these are bolstering the idea that Clinton may be Obama's best choice for vice president.

But two Rasmussen polls, one taken the second week of March and the other the first week of May, tells a much different story. Although it still looks bad for Obama, the numbers are stable. The first poll had Senator Clinton ahead by 28 points (55% - 27%). The second showed Senator Clinton increasing her lead by 1 percentage point (56% -27%). Of course, with the undecided vote, those numbers could equal the poll numbers of American Research Group.