West Virginia Polls: Not a Game Changer

West Virginia has 28 delegates up for grabs in the upcoming Democratic primary on May 13^th, 2008. The state also has 10 super-delegates of whom 2 have pledged their support to Obama and 3 are committed to Clinton.

Polls indicate that Clinton has a significant lead over Obama and is poised for a spectacular victory in the state. Rasmussen's statewide poll from the week prior to the primary shows Obama trailing by a massive 29% in the popular vote. They report that 17% of the polled population is still undecided. American Research Group has Clinton ahead by over 40% in a poll conducted on May 7^th and 8^th. TSG Consulting/Orion strategies also have Clinton leading by over 40%.

The state's demographics are tailor-made for Clinton. West Virginia has a significant proportion of older population and blue-collar workers who have overwhelmingly supported Clinton throughout this contest. The state has the lowest percentage of population with a college degree in the country while the median household income for the state ranks amongst the lowest. Clinton has done very well in the neighboring states of Philadelphia and Ohio and is expected to win with a big margin in Kentucky's contest on May 20^th.

But the contest is so far ahead with Obama in a clear lead both in the delegate count and the popular vote count that there are too few states and delegates to change the equation in Hillary's favor. Even with a 40% margin, Clinton will narrow the delegate-count gap by only 11-12 delegates.

Currently Obama has a lead of 168 pledged delegates according to CNN. The past week saw a wave of super-delegates joining the Obama camp. Now Obama is even with Clinton in the super-delegate count - when the race started, Clinton had over a 100 super-delegate lead.

In the remaining contests, Obama is expected to win in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. So very likely, any of Clinton's gains in West Virginia will be erased in the near future. Obama has in fact conceded to Clinton in this state but is fairly confident of the nomination and is marching forth to compete against McCain in the presidential elections.