Since I wrote my NBA Draft preview, I have followed the articles and pre-draft camps and workouts. During this time, I have changed my mind about several picks and even my rationale for draft picks.
The NBA is a superstar-driven league. Every great team, except the Detroit Pistons, has a bona-fide star. They have a game-changer, someone the opponent has to game-plan against. Cleveland has LeBron James; San Antonio has Tim Duncan; Los Angeles has Kobe Bryant; New Orleans has Chris Paul; Miami has Dwyane Wade; and Boston has Paul Pierce. Acquiring such a player often requires luck: Cleveland and San Antonio got lucky winning the NBA Lottery to get the #1 pick in the right draft. Los Angeles managed to acquire Kobe Bryant in a draft-day deal when he was a skinny high school kid. New Orleans and Miami benefited from other teams mis-calculating Paul's and Wade's talents.
When picking #1, the organization cannot worry about position. If a team has a chance to draft a game-changer, they have to pick that player, even if they have a great player at that position. In 2003, Detroit picked Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade. One reason they overlooked Anthony was the emergence of Tayshaun Prince at the small forward position, and the Pistons were set at guard with Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton. However, while Billups, Hamilton and Prince are very good players, none is a #1 player. None is the guy, like a Kobe Bryant. If the Pistons added Anthony or Wade, they would probably have at least one more NBA Championship, as they would have added the dynamic go-to guy that they lack.
The NBA is a superstar-driven league. Every great team, except the Detroit Pistons, has a bona-fide star. They have a game-changer, someone the opponent has to game-plan against. Cleveland has LeBron James; San Antonio has Tim Duncan; Los Angeles has Kobe Bryant; New Orleans has Chris Paul; Miami has Dwyane Wade; and Boston has Paul Pierce. Acquiring such a player often requires luck: Cleveland and San Antonio got lucky winning the NBA Lottery to get the #1 pick in the right draft. Los Angeles managed to acquire Kobe Bryant in a draft-day deal when he was a skinny high school kid. New Orleans and Miami benefited from other teams mis-calculating Paul's and Wade's talents.
When picking #1, the organization cannot worry about position. If a team has a chance to draft a game-changer, they have to pick that player, even if they have a great player at that position. In 2003, Detroit picked Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade. One reason they overlooked Anthony was the emergence of Tayshaun Prince at the small forward position, and the Pistons were set at guard with Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton. However, while Billups, Hamilton and Prince are very good players, none is a #1 player. None is the guy, like a Kobe Bryant. If the Pistons added Anthony or Wade, they would probably have at least one more NBA Championship, as they would have added the dynamic go-to guy that they lack.
- I would draft O.J. Mayo #1.
- Bill Walker is most likely to be the steal of the draft.
- Malik Hairston could be the second round steal.
Comments
Great Article !!!
Picking Mayo would be a mistake. He can't stay out of trouble and would be a bane to any team that took him.
B
(Guest)
(Guest)
06/17/2008
Mark:
The difference between being a GM and writing a blog is connections. And, GMs, in some ways, are held accountable for their picks. Of course, this also means they play it conservatively most of the time.
I like Rose. But, is Rose ever going to be the best player on a championship team? I don't think so. Is Beasley? Beasley scares me because he appears aloof about the game. I would not invest a #1 overall pick on such a player. OJ Mayo seems determined to be the best. Coupled with his skill set and physical attributes, that's my gamble. Do I foresee Mayo as the #1 player on a championship team? Probably not. But, did anyone foresee Wade as the #1 on a championship team? Of the players in the draft, I'd bet on Mayo ahead of any others, which is why I go for Mayo at #1.
Mark
(Guest)
(Guest)
06/13/2008
Drafting OJ Mayo first would be idiotic. I'd fire my GM just for suggesting it. Why shock the world when you can improve your team? If the Bulls actually wanted Mayo, they'd be better served trading picks with a team desperate for Rose, say Miami. Picking Mayo first is dumb. Swapping 1 for 2 and getting value and STILL drafting Mayo (at the two or perhaps three spot) is the difference between working in the League and writing a blog.
DOm
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(Guest)
06/13/2008
As a bigbigbig heat fan, i was so excited that Riley took Mayo out to dinner on friday last week ,and supposedly it was a great workout. Miamis need was a PG all along, so it they were going to take D Rose, and mayos workouts are better, I say the draft him outright at 2 and make a statement, or, Minnesota having taken brewer and foye want beasley, I say Minnesota dangles the 2 picks the own of the heat, 31 this year and Miamis 2009 #1. I would ask for my 2 picks back if i was mIami and take marcus banks, and they trade the #3(mayo) to Miami for the #2 beasley. _***********HERE is what people are failing to realize-----Beasley is 6 8 in shoes. Miami has 2 double double 6 8 guys already in Marion and U haslem. Their need is PG, Mayo was a pg and will be in the nba, and is working out off the charts(and with dwade every day) why would Miami take bealey. PLEASE PLEASE_-------------I am hoping we get OJ at 2
DOm
(Guest)
(Guest)
06/13/2008
Everyone says dumars is a hero and great gm for having detroit in 6 ECF, which he did the smart thing and locked up young guns. BUT, had he picked an American player over a 18 year old russian kid, theyd have 3 or 4 titles with the same team and either wade, anthony or chris bosh(you can keep going) chris kaman at Center-----------Thats how bad a goof that was, and it wasnt their pick, it was memphis's. SO, they should have went for the sure thing and that was based on those ratings, carmelo anthony.
Craig
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(Guest)
06/13/2008
But what about Rudy Gay? If the Raptors had a do-over on the 2006 draft, might they not take Rudy Gay, a guy who many scouts said lacked passion? A guy who seemed to disappear on a pretty overrated UCONN squad next to guys like Marcus Williams? (Note: they might also take Brandon Roy, a guy seemingly EVERYBODY knew had the head and skill-set to make it.)
B
(Guest)
(Guest)
06/12/2008
They did draft Darko because they saw talent. You don't draft anyone #2 in the draft without thinking he was talented. But, the emergence of Prince is one reason they passed over Anthony, who almost everyone had as the #2 player in the draft. Of course, possibly the best move would have been to trade Hamilton in his prime and draft Wade to play with Billups in the back court. But, hindsight is 20/20. And, of course Bosh would have been the better big man pick than Darko.
The mocks have Danilo to the Knicks because they assume a love affair between D'Antoni and an Italian player. I haven't seen him play, so I don't know, but I don't think Donnie Walsh picks Danilo, especially with the persistent Ron Artest rumors. Eric Gordon seems to be the player falling on a lot of boards, but I liked Gordon better than Bayless when I saw them play in college. New York is interesting because they need everything, but they have lots of money invested everywhere too: Steph, Crawford, Curry, Randolph
Almost all of the mock drafts have the Knicks taking Danilo with pick #6 but I'm hoping that Mayo falls to them for all of the reasons you mention. As for teams in the past taking position over talent, the obvious example is Jordan falling to third because the Blazers wanted a center and took Bowie. I would suggest that the Pistons took Darko at least as much for talent as position. Taking Darko was every bit as much as a goof in talent evaluation as it was anything else.
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