Predicting 10 Consumer Trends Using Google Trends

10 Forecasts: What Consumers Will Buy, Where They'll Shop

Want a quick and easy way to find out what consumers might be interested in buying next shopping season? Try using Google Trends (http://www.google.com/trends), a Web site that tracks Google search terms.

Input a keyword and Google Trends will graph its popularity as a search term for you since 2004. It'll also break down its use by geographic location. Products and store-chain names that are "hot" are searched a lot, so this can be a way to predict future trends.*

Does it work?

To prove that this tool can work as I described, let's look at the popularity of the keywords "American Idol." It's no secret that viewership of this TV program has been dropping over the last two years (some episodes by as much as 10 percent), but was there any way to predict that fewer people would watch it in 2008 than in 2007?

Yes. Simply eyeballing the popularity of the search term "American Idol" in Google Trends shows that the keywords were less popular in 2007 than they were in 2006, thus a downward trend was already in the making. Also, the spike in interest in January of 2008 was less than it was in January 2007, further proof that American Idol would not be as avidly watched this year.

Can this tell us anything about how popular the show will be next year? Based on what is known about the waxing and waning of consumer trends, I would venture to say yes: American Idol will be less popular in 2009, continuing the downward trend that began in 2007.

To further prove my case, let's look at sales of the Nintendo Wii. The game console, which was hot in 2006, was even more popular in 2007, and sales have just kept climbing. But was there any way to forecast this using Google Trends?

Yes. A look at the chart tracking the use of the keyword "Wii" shows that it was "Googled" more often in 2007's pre-Christmas period than it was in 2006's pre-Christmas period, indicating it would sell better in the 2007 holiday period.