Texas Polls: John McCain Dominates Barack Obama

June 16, 2008 by
Mark Whittington  
Mark Whittington
Mark Whittington
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Poll Numbers Likely Insurmountable for the Democratic Candidate

No Democrat has won the state of Texas during a Presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Current polling data indicates that 2008 should be no different. John McCain leads Barack Obama by about 13 to 16 points in the most current matchups.

The Real Clear Politics average of state wide polls in Texas shows John McCain leading
Texas Polls: John McCain Dominates Barack Obama
Barack Obama 52 percent to 38 percent. The average is of polls taken between May 5th and June 2nd.

George W. Bush carried Texas, his home state, 61 percent to 38 percent for John Kerry in 2004 and 59 percent to Al Gore's 38 percent in 2000.

Texas was not always what is now called a Red State. Earlier in the 20th Century, Texas was part of the so-called "solid south" that would elect Democrats to national office by lock step. Texas was the home of such Democratic Party icons as President Lyndon Johnson and Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn.

The Democratic grip on Texas began to loosen shortly after the 1960 election in which Republican John Tower was elected to the Senate seat held by Lyndon Johnson, who had been elected Vice President. Tower was the first Republican Texas US Senator since Reconstruction. Bill Clements was elected the first Republican Governor since Reconstruction in 1978.

By the early 21st Century, every statewide office in Texas was held by a Republican. Because of a redistricting plan engineered by then House Majority Leader Tom Delay, the Republicans captured both houses of the Texas Legislature and grew their number of seats in the US House.

Democratic strongholds are now concentrated in minority districts, particularly along the Rio Grande River Valley, and in Austin, which is both a college town and, as state capital, residence to government workers and office holders.

The main reason Texas shifted from a solid Democratic state to a solid Republican state in the space of a generation had to do with two factors. First was the dying off of the last Yellow Dog Democrat generation and the common of age of a new generation that was open to voting for Republicans. The other factor was the slow but steady tilt to the left of the national Democratic Party.

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Very interesting, I did not know that Texas used to be so blue! and i did not know that Obama was anti-NASA spending. thank you for the post!
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Posted on 06/29/2008 at 2:06:22 PM

What hilarity! The last paragraph is a lesson in naivete (or perhaps a desire to conceal the truth). Like the rest of the South, Texas became solid GOP when the blacks were given the right to vote by LBJ's Voting Rights Act. And the GOP then capitalized on with Nixon's (in)famous Southern Strategy. Thankfully, white majority is giving way to a more diverse population in Texas (did you know Houston is the most diverse city in the US racially? woot!), and among younger Southern whites the old racism is going away. But still. To so blatantly cover up an ugly history. You should be ashamed of yourself. And PS - the Democratic party was WAY more left-wing back in the 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, etc. - remember FDR? If only we had a president like that...
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Posted on 06/25/2008 at 6:06:32 PM

Don't know why the Latinos would be so behind Obama.....since really, McCain is their strongest open borders advocate. He's left the Arizona border open for years, while his fellow Arizonans lives and property have been compromised by the border hoppers - with two of those 9/11 pilots training out in Scottsdale. Love the 'legal' Latinos in this country to decide if they are Mexicans, or Americans, once and for all - if they are Americans, they would want that border sealed also.
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Posted on 06/19/2008 at 4:06:26 PM

You make a very cursory statement that Latino's in Texas don't support Obama over McCain. Why are Texas Mexican Americans so different from those California, New Mexico and even, Arizona? Mexican Americans support Obama overwhelmingly over McCain -- despite the fact that they supported Hillary over Obama in the primary. I have not seen any numbers indicating that Texas Mex-Ams will be any different. Plus, you forgot to note that Latinos in Texas (and in every other state where they have a presence) had a surge in registration and voting this primary season. They will vote for Obama in Texas (as elsewhere). African Americans will also overwhelmingly come out and vote for Obama; and will that growing chorus of Texas white liberals. While Obama may not win Texas, it will be very, very close, ...mark my words, ...
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Posted on 06/17/2008 at 5:06:15 PM

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