Texas Polls: John McCain Dominates Barack Obama

Poll Numbers Likely Insurmountable for the Democratic Candidate

No Democrat has won the state of Texas during a Presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Current polling data indicates that 2008 should be no different. John McCain leads Barack Obama by about 13 to 16 points in the most current matchups.

The Real Clear Politics average of state wide polls in Texas shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 52 percent to 38 percent. The average is of polls taken between May 5^th and June 2^nd.

George W. Bush carried Texas, his home state, 61 percent to 38 percent for John Kerry in 2004 and 59 percent to Al Gore's 38 percent in 2000.

Texas was not always what is now called a Red State. Earlier in the 20^th Century, Texas was part of the so-called "solid south" that would elect Democrats to national office by lock step. Texas was the home of such Democratic Party icons as President Lyndon Johnson and Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn.

The Democratic grip on Texas began to loosen shortly after the 1960 election in which Republican John Tower was elected to the Senate seat held by Lyndon Johnson, who had been elected Vice President. Tower was the first Republican Texas US Senator since Reconstruction. Bill Clements was elected the first Republican Governor since Reconstruction in 1978.

By the early 21^st Century, every statewide office in Texas was held by a Republican. Because of a redistricting plan engineered by then House Majority Leader Tom Delay, the Republicans captured both houses of the Texas Legislature and grew their number of seats in the US House.

Democratic strongholds are now concentrated in minority districts, particularly along the Rio Grande River Valley, and in Austin, which is both a college town and, as state capital, residence to government workers and office holders.

The main reason Texas shifted from a solid Democratic state to a solid Republican state in the space of a generation had to do with two factors. First was the dying off of the last Yellow Dog Democrat generation and the common of age of a new generation that was open to voting for Republicans. The other factor was the slow but steady tilt to the left of the national Democratic Party.