BABIP is a fairly unknown statistic in baseball. It stands for Batting Average on Balls hit Into Play. It is a very helpful statistic in fantasy baseball because, if used right, it can tell you who to buy low or sell high.
Simple logic states that once a ball is hit into play, there is nothing a hitter can do to increase his chances of a hit. So, if you keep hitting them into play, they'll eventually start to drop for you. However, some guys just aren't good hitters and if they are hitting with a batting avg lower than their BABIP, they will likely continue to struggle. However, if a hitter is hitting with a BABIP lower than their average, as their BABIP will most likely increase, their batting average will too. Guys who hit .235 with a BABIP of .215 are good buy low candidates. Guys who hit .320 with a BABIP of .390 are good sell high candidates. Guys who hit .230 with a BABIP of .250, just plain shouldn't be touched. Guys who hit .330 with a BABIP of .310 are keepers. If you don't get it now, i'll give some examples.
Note, hitters with higher averages will see higher disparity between AVG and BABIP. If a hitter with a .350 average has a .350 BABIP, it means he is likely to stay the course and not drop off. If a hitter has a .350 average and a .420 BABIP, they'll be a drop off likely.
Buy low
Jason Giambi
AVG .266
BABIP: .243
Giambi had a decent average, but when he hits the ball into play, not striking out or hitting a homerun, the ball doesn't fall all that often. That is just bad luck and that should sort itself out. A rise in BABIP is very likely and thus a rise in batting average of 20-30 points is also likely. Buy low.
Projected final average .290
Joe Crede
AVG .284
BABIP .274
Not as big of a disparity as with Giambi, but its still something. Expect an increase in production.
Projected final average .300
Sell high
Justin Upton
AVG .244
BABIP .353
Guys keep Upton despite his low average because they see potential for him to turn it around. The BABIP and his 37.3% strikeout percentage say otherwise. Once those balls stop falling for him, he's out of luck.
Projected final average .215
Jack Cust
AVG .256
BABIP .351
Simple logic states that once a ball is hit into play, there is nothing a hitter can do to increase his chances of a hit. So, if you keep hitting them into play, they'll eventually start to drop for you. However, some guys just aren't good hitters and if they are hitting with a batting avg lower than their BABIP, they will likely continue to struggle. However, if a hitter is hitting with a BABIP lower than their average, as their BABIP will most likely increase, their batting average will too. Guys who hit .235 with a BABIP of .215 are good buy low candidates. Guys who hit .320 with a BABIP of .390 are good sell high candidates. Guys who hit .230 with a BABIP of .250, just plain shouldn't be touched. Guys who hit .330 with a BABIP of .310 are keepers. If you don't get it now, i'll give some examples.
Note, hitters with higher averages will see higher disparity between AVG and BABIP. If a hitter with a .350 average has a .350 BABIP, it means he is likely to stay the course and not drop off. If a hitter has a .350 average and a .420 BABIP, they'll be a drop off likely.
Buy low
Jason Giambi
AVG .266
BABIP: .243
Giambi had a decent average, but when he hits the ball into play, not striking out or hitting a homerun, the ball doesn't fall all that often. That is just bad luck and that should sort itself out. A rise in BABIP is very likely and thus a rise in batting average of 20-30 points is also likely. Buy low.
Projected final average .290
Joe Crede
AVG .284
BABIP .274
Not as big of a disparity as with Giambi, but its still something. Expect an increase in production.
Projected final average .300
Sell high
Justin Upton
AVG .244
BABIP .353
Guys keep Upton despite his low average because they see potential for him to turn it around. The BABIP and his 37.3% strikeout percentage say otherwise. Once those balls stop falling for him, he's out of luck.
Projected final average .215
Jack Cust
AVG .256
BABIP .351
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